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Bitcoin could potentially surpass \$1 million by 2029, driven by increasing institutional adoption and government interest, according to André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise Asset Management. In a recent interview on Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction show, Dragosch stated that this projection aligns with Bitcoin matching gold’s market capitalization, which currently stands at over \$21.7 trillion.
Dragosch outlined a “base case” scenario where Bitcoin reaches \$200,000 by the end of 2025 without additional government adoption. However, if governments—particularly the United States—begin acquiring Bitcoin through “budget-neutral” strategies such as reallocating tariff revenues or reevaluating gold certificates, the price could escalate to \$500,000 within the same timeframe.
The surge in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has also contributed to this optimistic outlook. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has become the fastest-growing ETF in history, indicating strong investor demand. Dragosch emphasized that the first year is typically the slowest for ETFs, suggesting that inflows are expected to increase in subsequent years.
Furthermore, U.S. wirehouses—major brokerage firms like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley—manage over \$10 trillion in customer assets. Currently, less than half have opened distribution channels to Bitcoin ETFs. As more wirehouses adopt these products, significant capital inflows into Bitcoin are anticipated.
This combination of institutional and governmental adoption is expected to provide the structural inflows necessary for Bitcoin to reach and potentially exceed \$1 million by 2029.
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